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Deal Analysis on Supported Living Schemes
Courses / Module 4 / Module 5

Deal Analysis on Supported Living Schemes

Module 05: Financial Analysis & Investment Evaluation

105 minutes
Advanced Level

Objective

To teach learners how to analyse a supported living investment from a financial and operational perspective.

Topics Covered

Analysing rental yields and ROI in supported living
Comparing with traditional buy-to-let investments
Capital expenditure forecasting (adaptations, planning, contingency)
Income forecasting with CPI indexing
Lease security and exit strategies
Full walk-through of a live or sample case study
01

Analysing Rental Yields and ROI in Supported Living

High-yield investment with long-term stability

Supported living properties typically generate higher and more stable rental yields compared to traditional buy-to-let investments. Current gross yields often range around 8-10%, sometimes higher depending on location and the lease structure.

Guaranteed Income

Lease agreements with care providers or local authorities ensure guaranteed long-term rental income.

Low Tenant Turnover

Supported living tenants usually stay longer for stability of care, reducing vacancy periods.

Reduced Management

Care providers often take responsibility for day-to-day property management and repairs.

Key Insight: Return on Investment (ROI) includes rental income plus potential capital growth, but in supported living the focus is on secure, inflation-linked rental income rather than rapid capital appreciation, making it attractive for long-term income stability.

02

Comparing with Traditional Buy-to-Let Investments

Detailed investment comparison matrix

Investment Aspect
Supported Living
Traditional Buy-to-Let
Typical Gross Yield
8-10% or more
Higher due to specialist nature
4-7%
Varies by location and property
Tenant Turnover
Low
Long-term tenants with support needs
High
Shorter leases, frequent voids
Management Burden
Low
Care providers handle management
High
Landlord or agent manages tenants
Rent Security
High
Rent often guaranteed by provider
Variable
Risk of arrears and voids
Capital Growth
Moderate, steady
Predictable long-term growth
Potentially higher
But more volatile and uncertain
Initial Costs
Higher
Due to adaptations and compliance
Lower
But dependent on market conditions
Social Impact
Significant
Supports vulnerable tenants directly
Less direct
General housing provision
03

Capital Expenditure Forecasting

Adaptations, planning, and contingency budgeting

Adaptation Costs

  • Wheelchair accessibility modifications
  • Wet rooms and accessible bathrooms
  • Widened doors and corridors
  • Specialist alarm systems
  • Fire safety modifications

Compliance & Planning

  • Building regulations compliance
  • Care Act standards implementation
  • Planning permission applications
  • Professional assessments (OT reports)
  • Safety certification and inspections

Budget Planning

  • Initial conversion/refurbishment costs
  • Ongoing maintenance and upgrades
  • Contingency funds (10-15%)
  • Professional fee allocation
  • Lease-specific requirements

Budgeting Tip: Capital expenditure forecasts should be realistic, based on professional assessments (e.g., from occupational therapists) and aligned with lease agreements that clarify repair responsibilities.

04

Income Forecasting with CPI Indexing

Predictable income growth through inflation protection

Annual Rent Increase =
CPI + Fixed Margin
e.g., CPI + 1%
Inflation Protection
Predictable Growth
Risk Management

Forecasting Best Practices:

01
Model Multiple Scenarios

Create forecasts for different inflation rates (low, medium, high)

02
Account for Caps & Collars

Include minimum and maximum increase limits in calculations

03
Long-term Planning

Project income over full lease term (typically 20-30 years)

When forecasting income, investors should model different inflation scenarios, considering caps or collars on rent increases often included in leases to hedge against extreme inflation or deflation.

05

Lease Security and Exit Strategies

Long-term stability with flexible exit options

Long-term Security

Typically 20-30 year leases with break clauses under specific conditions

FRI Agreements

Full Repairing and Insuring leases place maintenance responsibilities on tenant

Government Backing

Local authorities or registered providers as tenants reduce rent risk

Exit Strategies:

Sale
Leasehold Transfer

Sell the leasehold interest to another investor or housing association

Lease Break
Mutual Agreement

Triggered by changes in public funding or mutual consent

Re-letting
Provider Change

Re-negotiate lease with a new care provider at term end

06

Live Case Study Walk-Through

Real-world investment analysis example

10-Unit Supported Living

Learning Disabilities Accommodation

Property Type
Converted 10-unit house
Lease Term
25-year FRI lease
Tenant
Local authority contracted care provider
Initial Rent
£100,000 per annum
Rent Review
CPI + 1% (capped at 5%)
Capital Costs
£200,000 for adaptations
Income Forecast

Starts at £100,000/year, projected to reach ~£120,000/year in 10 years

ROI Analysis

Stable yield of 9%, reflecting guaranteed rent, low void risk, and modest capital growth

Exit Options

Lease transferable, with strong market demand for supported living investments

Key Outcomes

Conduct robust investment analysis on supported living deals

Understand the impact of leases, adaptations, and funding on financial returns